February 19, 2007

A Look Into ZiPS Build 2

As of February 18th 2007 ZiPS Projections Build 2 are available.

Taking a look at the difference between the team prior to the LaRoche Deal and the current roster, as I expect to head north, there really is not a great improvement. How much does the positional ZiPS projection change by adding LaRoche?
* 28 Hits
* 8 Runs
* 6 Doubles
* 2 HR's
* 35 RBI
* +.001 Team BA
I was expecting to see a larger improvement across the board that what was shown. The only significant jump was in RBI which did not translate into additional Runs. Only a 2 HR improvement shocked me. Not exactly earth shattering improvement is it? Luckily they do not play games on paper.

Eldred was removed from my original team heading north. Matos ZiPS projections are not available, Kernandez stats were used. Right click the table and open in new window for a larger view.

Here are the expected positional players for the 25 man roster:

Taking a look at the pitching, shows another disturbing trend. The changes to the pitching staff had a negative impact also.
* .08 increase in ERA
* 2 more losses
* 14 additional earned runs
* 5 additional HR's
* 10 additional walks
* 31 fewer strikeouts
The decline in numbers would have been far worse, if not for the addition of Armas who fills the filler spot I had Santos' numbers in. According to the wins and loss total, the Pirates are projected to finish 76-78, a .494 win pct. This roughly translates into 79 or 80 wins over the 162 game season, which I think most Pirate fans would be happy to see.

In my original staff heading north, I used Santos as a place holder. Gonzo has been removed. In the updated roster Kolb and Armas have been added. Right click the table and open in new window for a larger view.

Here are the expected pitchers for the 25 man roster:

According to ZiPS, overall the improvements on offense are not as drastic as the loss from the pitching staff. I do not put much faith in these number after all they are exactly what they are, predictions. Regardless, the numbers they are predicting are a vast improvement over 2006. As I said, most Pirate fans would be happy to see these number be close to accurate. Would you agree? Answer in the comment section.
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