What I found is somewhat surprising, not that it means much. The games still have to be played.
Based on the 40 man roster, the expected win total of pitchers was 65.57143. Essentially 65 or 66 wins. But that wasn't good enough for my readers, so I set a likely 25 man roster and reran the numbers.
The roster I set as the 25 man roster is as follows with 2007 ZIPS Projected BA:
* - Left Handed Hitter
# - Switch Hitter
* - Left Handed
A comparison of 2006 Team Stats to the 2007 ZIPS 25 Man Projection are as follows:
Looking at the numbers as team batting, there were fewer at bats by nearly 500 at bats.
Here are the adjusted batting stats so comparable at bats are used between Actual and Projected:
Looking at adjusted stats, as it stands the team is expected to improve. Runs will be up considerably as well as most other stats except RBI. I guess we play a lot of poor defensive teams?
The stats I found most amazing was the pitching, most notably the win loss record.
Once again an adjustment needs to be made to have similar innings pitched.
Based on the ZIPS projection, and the health of the staff, the Pirates will finally have a non-losing season. Walks will be down considerably. Strikeouts will also drop. The team ERA is projected to improve as well. The 2007 ZIPS projection is 4.26. In 2006 the team ERA was 4.55.
Luckily the team has picked up 3 starts. Maybe that means they win a wild card spot and get swept in the playoffs?
What does this all mean? I think it means a computer is impressed enough with the team that it expects a dramatic improvement in the team. Unfortunately I am not as optimistic. At least according to paper /computer we are a .500 team!!