December 30, 2006

2007 ZIPS Projection

Honest Wagner has put up a link to the 2007 ZIPS projections. I decided to take a look at what the likely 25 man lineups team stats could look like as well as an estimate on what the ZIPS projection will reveal as the expected win percentage of the 2007 Pirates.

What I found is somewhat surprising, not that it means much. The games still have to be played.

Based on the 40 man roster, the expected win total of pitchers was 65.57143. Essentially 65 or 66 wins. But that wasn't good enough for my readers, so I set a likely 25 man roster and reran the numbers.

The roster I set as the 25 man roster is as follows with 2007 ZIPS Projected BA:

Name P Age AVG
Jason Bay lf 28 0.279
Xavier Nady rf 28 0.280
Freddy Sanchez 3b 29 0.306
Jose Bautista cf 26 0.255
Ryan Doumit# c 26 0.252
Jody Gerut* rf 29 0.254
Nate McLouth* cf 25 0.267
Chris Duffy* cf 27 0.274
Ronny Paulino c 26 0.272
Jack Wilson ss 29 0.270
Jose Castillo 2b 26 0.256
Brad Eldred 1b 26 0.223

* - Left Handed Hitter
# - Switch Hitter

Name Age ERA
Mike Gonzalez* 29 2.45
Salomon Torres 35 3.44
Matt Capps 23 3.87
Zach Duke* 24 3.92
Damaso Marte* 32 3.97
Tom Gorzelanny* 24 4.06
Josh Sharpless 26 4.11
John Grabow* 28 4.23
Ian Snell 25 4.53
Paul Maholm* 25 4.63
Victor Santos 30 5.08
Shawn Chacon 29 5.50

* - Left Handed

A comparison of 2006 Team Stats to the 2007 ZIPS 25 Man Projection are as follows:

Team Batting:
Season AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI
2007 Projected 0.269 5079 693 1364 299 23 151 601
2006 Actual 0.263 5558 691 1462 286 17 141 656

Looking at the numbers as team batting, there were fewer at bats by nearly 500 at bats.

Here are the adjusted batting stats so comparable at bats are used between Actual and Projected:
Season AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI
2007 Adjusted 0.269 5558 758 1493 327 25 165 658
2006 Actual 0.263 5558 691 1462 286 17 141 656
I added 9.43% to the projected totals to create the adjusted total.

Looking at adjusted stats, as it stands the team is expected to improve. Runs will be up considerably as well as most other stats except RBI. I guess we play a lot of poor defensive teams?

The stats I found most amazing was the pitching, most notably the win loss record.

Team Pitching:
Season W L GS INN BB K
2007 Projected 76 76 156 1359 518 975
2006 Actual 67 95 162 1435 620 1060

Once again an adjustment needs to be made to have similar innings pitched.

Season W L GS INN BB K
2006 Actual 67 95 162 1435 620 1060
2007 Adjusted 80.3 80.3 165 1435 547 1030
I added 5.6% to the projected totals to create the adjusted total.

Based on the ZIPS projection, and the health of the staff, the Pirates will finally have a non-losing season. Walks will be down considerably. Strikeouts will also drop. The team ERA is projected to improve as well. The 2007 ZIPS projection is 4.26. In 2006 the team ERA was 4.55.

Luckily the team has picked up 3 starts. Maybe that means they win a wild card spot and get swept in the playoffs?

What does this all mean? I think it means a computer is impressed enough with the team that it expects a dramatic improvement in the team. Unfortunately I am not as optimistic. At least according to paper /computer we are a .500 team!!

Post a Comment